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Perspective and Turbulence
Perspective MattersEleven years ago, on January 1, 2012, the S&P 500 price index stood at 1,257.60. Ten years later, on December 31, 2021, the same index stood at 4,766. On a total return basis, the index returned +16.6% annually for...
Read MoreQ3 Review and Outlook: Looking for the Light
Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all of the darkness. --Desmond TutuThis continues to be a poor year in the global financial markets. Making matters worse, the places where we have historically sought safety...
Read MoreMid-Year 2022 Update
“Is now the winter of our discontent?” We have no way of knowing, but there are plenty of cold winds blowing out there...
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Second Quarter Investment Notes and Outlook
“As sure as the spring will follow the winter, prosperity and economic growth will follow recession.” – Bo Bennett The severe downturn of 2020 is now largely behind us. Here in New England the general mood is of...
Read MoreInflation: Back From the Dead?
Over the past 40 years inflation has been so low that it has been declared dead. This year it is suddenly back with a vengeance. What does it mean for financial markets and investment portfolios?
Read MoreRough Waves and Sea Change
2020 already feels like a decade and we are only halfway through. Over the first six months investors experienced one of the biggest quarterly losses in stock market history, followed by one of the biggest quarterly rallies. The...
Read MoreThe Ultimate Catch-22
The world is dealing with a once-in-a-century event that will likely change the way we live forever. While the concept of a pandemic is not something completely out of left field, it is now clear that no country or government was ready...
Read More2020 Investment Outlook
Summary2019 was an exceptional year for the financial markets and nearly all asset classes posted surprisingly high returns. However, one year does not define investment success any more than one season defines a true sports fan. The...
Read MoreOf Wheat and Cash
Wheat Management My father grew up on a farm in the middle of the Balkans during World War II. Even though he was only seven years old at the start of the war, he remembers these times vividly and has a million stories to regale anyone...
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2019 Investment Outlook
The plunge in bond yields has been the major story of 2019 to date. We are now in what we would call a “Wild, Wacky Investment World” (WWIW) where a significant number of global stocks have dividend yields higher than the...
Read MoreFourth Quarter 2019 Investment Outlook
The plunge in bond yields has been the major story of 2019 to date. We are now in what we would call a “Wild, Wacky Investment World” (WWIW) where a significant number of global stocks have dividend yields higher than the...
Read MoreThird Quarter 2019 Investment Outlook
“Trade war! Trade war! Not afraid of outrageous challenge! Not afraid of outrageous challenge! A trade war is happening over the Pacific Ocean! If the perpetrator wants to fight, we will beat him out of his wits.” –...
Read MoreSecond Quarter 2019 Investment Outlook
SUMMARY (Link to the full report is available HERE) Abcd The two major questions facing investors at this moment are as follows: 1) Are we in just another temporary economic soft patch that occurred periodically and for several...
Read More2019 Investment Outlook
We’re Moving On UpSUMMARY(Link to the full report is available HERE) A much more challenging outlook faces investors at the start of 2019 than a year ago. The U.S. tax cuts are now fully baked in and no longer a tailwind for the...
Read MoreCan You Learn to Love the Bear?
As we approach the end of the tumultuous 2018, bears are in control. Volatility has increased, large sell-offs seem to have become the norm, and there is frequent talk of an economic slowdown or recession. Adding fuel to the...
Read MoreMy Dad Has $1.8 Million Worth of GE…
Below is a snapshot from a social discussion website Reddit from about a year ago. Source: Twitter 11/12/2018 via Nick Maggiulli @dollarsanddata Brief summary of this situation: A son went to an Internet forum asking what his 67-year...
Read MoreMid-Year Review: Euphoria and Disillusionment
As noted in our December review, 2017 was a surprisingly strong year for financial markets: nearly all asset classes posted healthy gains. The S&P 500 gained more than 20%, emerging markets 30+%, and even the stodgy bonds had a...
Read MoreWarren’s Bet
The release of Berkshire Hathaway’s annual report is one of the most anticipated events for investment nerds everywhere. The first fifteen or so pages, titled “Chairman’s Letter,” are always carefully...
Read MoreReturn to Normalcy
Feb 2, 2018 closing prices (source: CNBC) Friday’s one-day 666 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was a shock for most market participants. Predictably, media’s doom-and-gloom playbook is in vogue again:...
Read MorePigeons, Rat Tails, and TIAA
(Featured image: B.F. Skinner’s Pigeon Experiments 1950, Getty Images) Incentives are the most powerful driver of behavior for most, if not all, living things. Countless experiments have demonstrated that, given the right...
Read MoreFiduciary Rule, We Hardly Knew Ye
A Little Background In April of 2016, after years of political wrangling, sweat and tears, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) unveiled the so-called Fiduciary Rule. The rule was to take effect in April of 2017 and, at its core, was...
Read MoreWe Don’t Want To Eat It!
Imagine a product or service so bad that the employees of the company that makes it refuse to “eat their own cooking.” Even worse, the employees join together and sue their employer for making them use it. What...
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