(Link to the full report is available HERE)
The two major questions facing investors at this moment are as follows:
1) Are we in just another temporary economic soft patch that occurred periodically and for several quarters over the past decade?
2) Alternately, is the U.S. economy heading into an actual recession after experiencing the second longest economic expansion on record (albeit the weakest one)?
Stocks/equities seem to saying it’s the former while bonds seem to be saying it’s looking more like the latter.
Both can’t be right. A U.S./ China trade deal that gets completed in the near future has the potential to be a positive catalyst for risk assets and will remove a large overhang and help the global growth outlook to improve.
Five months into negotiations, a deal has proved elusive so far. Both parties are fully aware of the high stakes but it remains to be seen if a deal will get done.
In addition, a new U.S./Mexico/Canada (replacing NAFTA) trade deal has not yet passed Congress and Trump is now setting his sights on Europe as well.
PLEASE NOTE: ABSOLUTELY NOTHING IN THIS ARTICLE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION REGARDING THE SUITABILITY OF ANY INVESTMENT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO DISCLOSURES.